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Lightweight · Active

Chris Duncan

UFC Record
6-2
Age
33
Height
5'10"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox

Fighter Elo

The rating the forecasts are built on. It projects fighters.

Fighter Elo
1529Today
1592Best, Feb 2024
1561Classic Elo
#138 Men: Pound for Pound#21 Lightweight
1400150016002024202520261412 going into Omar Morales, Mar 20231487 going into Yanal Ashmouz, Jul 20231592 going into Manuel Torres, Feb 20241519 going into Bolaji Oki, Sep 20241515 going into Jordan Vucenic, Mar 20251557 going into Mateusz Rebecki, Aug 20251525 going into Terrance McKinney, Dec 20251558 going into Renato Moicano, Apr 20261529 today1529
Fighter Elo going into each UFC fight, and today.
Classic Elo
1561Today
1577Best, Apr 2026
1529Fighter Elo
#136 Men: Pound for Pound#20 Lightweight

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses, so it reads more like normal rankings.

1500155016002024202520261500 going into Omar Morales, Mar 20231516 going into Yanal Ashmouz, Jul 20231532 going into Manuel Torres, Feb 20241516 going into Bolaji Oki, Sep 20241532 going into Jordan Vucenic, Mar 20251546 going into Mateusz Rebecki, Aug 20251562 going into Terrance McKinney, Dec 20251577 going into Renato Moicano, Apr 20261561 today1561
Classic Elo going into each UFC fight, and after the last one.

How Fighter Elo Works

Fighter Elo is the model's rating for a fighter, on the same scale chess uses. An average UFC fighter sits around 1500. The gap between two fighters sets the forecast: 100 points ahead is about a 64% chance to win, 200 points about 76%, and 400 points about 91%.

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses. Fighter Elo also counts how the fights went (striking and grappling numbers), age and build, and how active a fighter has been. It is worked out fresh before every fight, so it can move between fights too, for example with age or a long layoff.

Classic Elo, shown next to it, is the results-only version. It reads more like normal rankings, and the Rankings page can be switched to it.

Career Numbers

Across every UFC fight with recorded stats.

4.60Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute
46%Striking Accuracy
4.23Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute
52%Striking Defense
0.43Knockdowns per 15 Minutes
2.79Takedowns per 15 Minutes
41%Takedown Accuracy
56%Takedown Defense
0.65Submission Attempts per 15 Minutes
22%Share of Fight Time in Control
8.7 minAverage Fight Length
Ended ByKO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Wins033
Losses020

Fight History

Every UFC fight, newest first. Tap a fight to see what both fighters put up.

Lossvs. Renato MoicanoSubmission · R2 3:14Apr 4, 2026UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Chris DuncanRenato Moicano
1558Fighter Elo Going In1524
1577Classic Elo Going In1584
27 of 62Significant Strikes21 of 36
30 of 66Total Strikes62 of 84
0 of 2Takedowns1 of 4
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts1
0:01Control Time3:16
Winvs. Terrance McKinneySubmission · R1 2:30Dec 6, 2025UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Chris DuncanTerrance McKinney
1525Fighter Elo Going In1573
1562Classic Elo Going In1540
38 of 55Significant Strikes31 of 57
53 of 75Total Strikes31 of 57
1 of 2Takedowns0 of 0
1Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
1:10Control Time0:00
Winvs. Mateusz RebeckiUnanimous DecisionAug 2, 2025UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Chris DuncanMateusz Rebecki
1557Fighter Elo Going In1526
1546Classic Elo Going In1548
92 of 222Significant Strikes114 of 267
95 of 225Total Strikes123 of 278
0 of 1Takedowns2 of 6
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:27Control Time1:23
Winvs. Jordan VucenicSubmission · R2 3:42Mar 22, 2025UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Chris DuncanJordan Vucenic
1515Fighter Elo Going In1452
1532Classic Elo Going In1483
15 of 40Significant Strikes16 of 26
24 of 50Total Strikes22 of 32
4 of 5Takedowns1 of 2
1Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
5:37Control Time0:12
Winvs. Bolaji OkiSubmission · R1 3:34Sep 28, 2024UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Chris DuncanBolaji Oki
1519Fighter Elo Going In1556
1516Classic Elo Going In1516
10 of 25Significant Strikes28 of 50
12 of 29Total Strikes29 of 51
0 of 1Takedowns2 of 3
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time1:11
Lossvs. Manuel TorresSubmission · R1 1:46Feb 24, 2024UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Chris DuncanManuel Torres
1592Fighter Elo Going In1575
1532Classic Elo Going In1530
1 of 2Significant Strikes3 of 5
1 of 2Total Strikes5 of 7
1 of 3Takedowns2 of 2
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts1
0:40Control Time0:42
Winvs. Yanal AshmouzUnanimous DecisionJul 22, 2023UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Chris DuncanYanal Ashmouz
1487Fighter Elo Going In1459
1516Classic Elo Going In1516
85 of 206Significant Strikes35 of 98
87 of 209Total Strikes36 of 100
2 of 4Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:48Control Time0:00
Winvs. Omar MoralesSplit DecisionMar 18, 2023UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Chris DuncanOmar Morales
1412Fighter Elo Going In1354
1500Classic Elo Going In1498
53 of 83Significant Strikes47 of 80
62 of 92Total Strikes53 of 86
5 of 14Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
6:31Control Time0:02