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Lightweight · Active

Drew Dober

UFC Record
15-11
Age
37
Height
5'8"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw

Fighter Elo

The rating the forecasts are built on. It projects fighters.

Fighter Elo
1368Today
1509Best, Mar 2021
1553Classic Elo
#317 Men: Pound for Pound#60 Lightweight
130014001500160020142016201820202022202420261443 going into Sean Spencer, Nov 20131403 going into Nick Hein, May 20141409 going into Jamie Varner, Dec 20141434 going into Efrain Escudero, Jun 20151412 going into Scott Holtzman, Jan 20161446 going into Jason Gonzalez, Sep 20161481 going into Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Dec 20161475 going into Joshua Burkman, Jul 20171482 going into Frank Camacho, Jan 20181478 going into Jon Tuck, Aug 20181473 going into Beneil Dariush, Mar 20191444 going into Marco Polo Reyes, Jun 20191474 going into Nasrat Haqparast, Jan 20201493 going into Alexander Hernandez, May 20201509 going into Islam Makhachev, Mar 20211469 going into Brad Riddell, Jun 20211476 going into Terrance McKinney, Mar 20221458 going into Rafael Alves, Jul 20221463 going into King Green, Dec 20221436 going into Matt Frevola, May 20231395 going into Ricky Glenn, Oct 20231436 going into Renato Moicano, Feb 20241416 going into Jean Silva (160), Jul 20241388 going into Manuel Torres, Mar 20251347 going into Kyle Prepolec, Oct 20251374 going into Michael Johnson, Mar 20261368 today1368
Fighter Elo going into each UFC fight, and today.
Classic Elo
1553Today
1581Best, May 2023
1368Fighter Elo
#157 Men: Pound for Pound#27 Lightweight

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses, so it reads more like normal rankings.

145015001550160020142016201820202022202420261500 going into Sean Spencer, Nov 20131484 going into Nick Hein, May 20141469 going into Jamie Varner, Dec 20141485 going into Efrain Escudero, Jun 20151469 going into Scott Holtzman, Jan 20161487 going into Jason Gonzalez, Sep 20161504 going into Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Dec 20161489 going into Joshua Burkman, Jul 20171503 going into Frank Camacho, Jan 20181519 going into Jon Tuck, Aug 20181534 going into Beneil Dariush, Mar 20191520 going into Marco Polo Reyes, Jun 20191536 going into Nasrat Haqparast, Jan 20201552 going into Alexander Hernandez, May 20201568 going into Islam Makhachev, Mar 20211553 going into Brad Riddell, Jun 20211537 going into Terrance McKinney, Mar 20221553 going into Rafael Alves, Jul 20221566 going into King Green, Dec 20221581 going into Matt Frevola, May 20231563 going into Ricky Glenn, Oct 20231576 going into Renato Moicano, Feb 20241559 going into Jean Silva (160), Jul 20241541 going into Manuel Torres, Mar 20251524 going into Kyle Prepolec, Oct 20251537 going into Michael Johnson, Mar 20261553 today1553
Classic Elo going into each UFC fight, and after the last one.

How Fighter Elo Works

Fighter Elo is the model's rating for a fighter, on the same scale chess uses. An average UFC fighter sits around 1500. The gap between two fighters sets the forecast: 100 points ahead is about a 64% chance to win, 200 points about 76%, and 400 points about 91%.

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses. Fighter Elo also counts how the fights went (striking and grappling numbers), age and build, and how active a fighter has been. It is worked out fresh before every fight, so it can move between fights too, for example with age or a long layoff.

Classic Elo, shown next to it, is the results-only version. It reads more like normal rankings, and the Rankings page can be switched to it.

Career Numbers

Across every UFC fight with recorded stats.

4.48Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute
41%Striking Accuracy
4.33Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute
53%Striking Defense
0.68Knockdowns per 15 Minutes
0.61Takedowns per 15 Minutes
17%Takedown Accuracy
58%Takedown Defense
0.07Submission Attempts per 15 Minutes
13%Share of Fight Time in Control
8.2 minAverage Fight Length
Ended ByKO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Wins1113
Losses344

Fight History

Every UFC fight, newest first. Tap a fight to see what both fighters put up.

Winvs. Michael JohnsonKO/TKO · R2 1:53Mar 7, 2026UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberMichael Johnson
1374Fighter Elo Going In1424
1537Classic Elo Going In1536
22 of 55Significant Strikes27 of 76
22 of 55Total Strikes27 of 76
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:00
Winvs. Kyle PrepolecKO/TKO · R3 1:16Oct 18, 2025UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberKyle Prepolec
1347Fighter Elo Going In1242
1524Classic Elo Going In1457
83 of 161Significant Strikes51 of 164
85 of 163Total Strikes51 of 164
0 of 1Takedowns0 of 3
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:04Control Time0:02
Lossvs. Manuel TorresKO/TKO · R1 1:45Mar 29, 2025UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberManuel Torres
1388Fighter Elo Going In1464
1541Classic Elo Going In1529
3 of 9Significant Strikes23 of 25
3 of 9Total Strikes23 of 25
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:10
Lossvs. Jean Silva (160)TKO (Doctor's Stoppage) · R3 1:28Jul 13, 2024UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberJean Silva (160)
1416Fighter Elo Going In1212
1559Classic Elo Going In1500
59 of 147Significant Strikes53 of 109
59 of 148Total Strikes53 of 109
0 of 4Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:30Control Time0:00
Lossvs. Renato MoicanoUnanimous DecisionFeb 3, 2024UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberRenato Moicano
1436Fighter Elo Going In1444
1576Classic Elo Going In1564
23 of 59Significant Strikes23 of 42
36 of 73Total Strikes142 of 177
1 of 2Takedowns3 of 6
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
1:02Control Time10:33
Winvs. Ricky GlennKO/TKO · R1 2:36Oct 7, 2023UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberRicky Glenn
1395Fighter Elo Going In1404
1563Classic Elo Going In1507
30 of 53Significant Strikes5 of 22
30 of 53Total Strikes5 of 22
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 1
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:31Control Time0:00
Lossvs. Matt FrevolaKO/TKO · R1 4:08May 6, 2023UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberMatt Frevola
1436Fighter Elo Going In1474
1581Classic Elo Going In1521
20 of 59Significant Strikes35 of 75
20 of 59Total Strikes39 of 79
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:08
Winvs. King GreenKO/TKO · R2 2:45Dec 17, 2022UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberKing Green
1463Fighter Elo Going In1561
1566Classic Elo Going In1541
34 of 121Significant Strikes73 of 142
34 of 121Total Strikes75 of 145
0 of 1Takedowns0 of 1
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:09Control Time0:11
Winvs. Rafael AlvesKO/TKO · R3 1:30Jul 30, 2022UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberRafael Alves
1458Fighter Elo Going In1567
1553Classic Elo Going In1503
62 of 151Significant Strikes37 of 68
62 of 151Total Strikes46 of 80
0 of 0Takedowns1 of 3
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:07Control Time2:21
Winvs. Terrance McKinneyKO/TKO · R1 3:17Mar 12, 2022UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberTerrance McKinney
1476Fighter Elo Going In1555
1537Classic Elo Going In1532
17 of 37Significant Strikes36 of 61
31 of 52Total Strikes43 of 74
0 of 1Takedowns2 of 3
1Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
0:24Control Time1:33
Lossvs. Brad RiddellUnanimous DecisionJun 12, 2021UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberBrad Riddell
1469Fighter Elo Going In1528
1553Classic Elo Going In1547
73 of 168Significant Strikes89 of 137
78 of 173Total Strikes113 of 161
1 of 5Takedowns5 of 11
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
1:05Control Time2:30
Lossvs. Islam MakhachevSubmission · R3 1:37Mar 6, 2021UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberIslam Makhachev
1509Fighter Elo Going In1692
1568Classic Elo Going In1598
10 of 20Significant Strikes15 of 25
14 of 24Total Strikes102 of 119
0 of 0Takedowns3 of 4
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts2
0:12Control Time9:26
Winvs. Alexander HernandezKO/TKO · R2 4:25May 13, 2020UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberAlexander Hernandez
1493Fighter Elo Going In1605
1552Classic Elo Going In1547
61 of 145Significant Strikes34 of 108
65 of 149Total Strikes41 of 115
0 of 0Takedowns3 of 5
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:11Control Time1:07
Winvs. Nasrat HaqparastKO/TKO · R1 1:10Jan 18, 2020UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberNasrat Haqparast
1474Fighter Elo Going In1625
1536Classic Elo Going In1531
13 of 26Significant Strikes7 of 11
13 of 26Total Strikes7 of 11
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:06Control Time0:00
Winvs. Marco Polo ReyesKO/TKO · R1 1:07Jun 29, 2019UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberMarco Polo Reyes
1444Fighter Elo Going In1359
1520Classic Elo Going In1527
16 of 27Significant Strikes5 of 14
17 of 29Total Strikes5 of 14
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 1
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:05Control Time0:00
Lossvs. Beneil DariushSubmission · R2 4:41Mar 9, 2019UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberBeneil Dariush
1473Fighter Elo Going In1651
1534Classic Elo Going In1576
31 of 58Significant Strikes37 of 65
38 of 66Total Strikes41 of 69
0 of 0Takedowns2 of 5
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts1
1:03Control Time5:18
Winvs. Jon TuckUnanimous DecisionAug 25, 2018UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberJon Tuck
1478Fighter Elo Going In1417
1519Classic Elo Going In1498
60 of 136Significant Strikes33 of 75
122 of 208Total Strikes39 of 81
2 of 2Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts1
7:48Control Time0:00
Winvs. Frank CamachoUnanimous DecisionJan 27, 2018UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberFrank Camacho
1482Fighter Elo Going In1498
1503Classic Elo Going In1502
145 of 322Significant Strikes106 of 223
161 of 338Total Strikes148 of 269
0 of 6Takedowns3 of 3
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:26Control Time3:04
Winvs. Joshua BurkmanKO/TKO · R1 3:04Jul 29, 2017UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberJoshua Burkman
1475Fighter Elo Going In1362
1489Classic Elo Going In1445
15 of 29Significant Strikes11 of 18
20 of 34Total Strikes11 of 18
0 of 1Takedowns0 of 1
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
1:07Control Time0:00
Lossvs. Olivier Aubin-MercierSubmission · R2 2:57Dec 10, 2016UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberOlivier Aubin-Mercier
1481Fighter Elo Going In1619
1504Classic Elo Going In1529
24 of 71Significant Strikes27 of 53
33 of 80Total Strikes30 of 56
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts1
1:13Control Time1:33
Winvs. Jason GonzalezKO/TKO · R1 1:45Sep 10, 2016UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberJason Gonzalez
1446Fighter Elo Going In1425
1487Classic Elo Going In1500
20 of 41Significant Strikes10 of 30
23 of 45Total Strikes10 of 30
0 of 1Takedowns0 of 0
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:10Control Time0:00
Winvs. Scott HoltzmanUnanimous DecisionJan 2, 2016UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberScott Holtzman
1412Fighter Elo Going In1537
1469Classic Elo Going In1515
36 of 88Significant Strikes38 of 69
63 of 119Total Strikes79 of 115
5 of 14Takedowns2 of 5
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
5:13Control Time3:59
Lossvs. Efrain EscuderoSubmission · R1 0:54Jun 13, 2015UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberEfrain Escudero
1434Fighter Elo Going In1530
1485Classic Elo Going In1485
0 of 3Significant Strikes1 of 1
0 of 3Total Strikes1 of 1
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts1
0:00Control Time0:22
Winvs. Jamie VarnerSubmission · R1 1:52Dec 13, 2014UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberJamie Varner
1409Fighter Elo Going In1523
1469Classic Elo Going In1479
5 of 12Significant Strikes4 of 10
7 of 14Total Strikes4 of 10
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 2
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
0:40Control Time0:00
Lossvs. Nick HeinUnanimous DecisionMay 31, 2014UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberNick Hein
1403Fighter Elo Going In1364
1484Classic Elo Going In1500
49 of 127Significant Strikes50 of 105
97 of 178Total Strikes87 of 148
0 of 4Takedowns2 of 6
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
2:59Control Time4:17
Lossvs. Sean SpencerUnanimous DecisionNov 30, 2013The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Drew DoberSean Spencer
1443Fighter Elo Going In1447
1500Classic Elo Going In1500
61 of 226Significant Strikes105 of 270
67 of 236Total Strikes109 of 274
0 of 11Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
3:04Control Time0:52