PhinsPhins
Create AccountUpgrade to PremiumPremium
Welcome!
FollowingEdit
    UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

    Melissa Croden vs. Chelsea Chandler

    Women's Bantamweight · 3 Rounds · Saturday, October 17
    Melissa Croden77%
    Chelsea Chandler23%
    Fighter Elo 1553Very Confident: Melissa CrodenFighter Elo 1347

    How It Ends

    The chance of each ending, for each fighter.

    Melissa CrodenChelsea Chandler
    43%Decision13%
    26%KO/TKO5%
    8%Submission5%
    56%Goes the Distance
    11.1 minAverage Length, of 15

    When It Ends

    The chance of a finish in each round, or of going to the judges.

    Round 120%Round 216%Round 38%Decision56%

    Where the Gap Comes From

    In Fighter Elo points. Melissa Croden is ahead by 206 in total.

    Melissa CrodenChelsea Chandler
    Striking+132Age and Build+19Past Results+18Experience+18Grappling+15Activity+3

    Projected Numbers

    The average over 20,000 simulated fights. Under each, the range 8 in 10 of those fights fall in.

    Melissa CrodenChelsea Chandler
    5411 to 102Significant Strikes29.25 to 56
    1.30 to 4Takedowns0.70 to 2
    0.20 to 1Knockdowns0.1usually 0
    3.2 min0.1 to 8.1Control Time1.9 min0 to 5.5
    0.30 to 1Submission Attempts0.20 to 1

    Chance of at Least

    Choose a stat and a number. The chances are read off the simulated fights.

    Melissa Croden61%
    Chelsea Chandler27%

    Worth Knowing

    Facts from the two fighters' UFC records.

    • Melissa Croden won by decision against Daria Zhelezniakova last time out, in 2026.
    • Chelsea Chandler won by submission against Priscila Cachoeira last time out, in 2026.
    • The biggest single edge is striking: 132 Fighter Elo points in favor of Melissa Croden.
    • The likeliest single ending in the forecast is Melissa Croden by decision, at 43%.

    Phins is forecasting and analytics, not betting advice.