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Lightweight · Active

Francis Marshall

UFC Record
4-3
Age
27
Height
5'9"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox

Fighter Elo

The rating the forecasts are built on. It projects fighters.

Fighter Elo
1512Today
1573Best, Aug 2023
1515Classic Elo
#154 Men: Pound for Pound#27 Lightweight
130014001500160020232024202520261490 going into Marcelo Rojo, Dec 20221481 going into William Gomis, Apr 20231573 going into Isaac Dulgarian, Aug 20231384 going into Dennis Buzukja, Aug 20241463 going into Mairon Santos, Mar 20251481 going into Erik Silva, Feb 20261468 going into Lucas Brennan, Apr 20261512 today1512
Fighter Elo going into each UFC fight, and today.
Classic Elo
1515Today
1512Fighter Elo
#272 Men: Pound for Pound#53 Lightweight

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses, so it reads more like normal rankings.

14501500155020232024202520261500 going into Marcelo Rojo, Dec 20221515 going into William Gomis, Apr 20231499 going into Isaac Dulgarian, Aug 20231483 going into Dennis Buzukja, Aug 20241499 going into Mairon Santos, Mar 20251484 going into Erik Silva, Feb 20261499 going into Lucas Brennan, Apr 20261515 today1515
Classic Elo going into each UFC fight, and after the last one.

How Fighter Elo Works

Fighter Elo is the model's rating for a fighter, on the same scale chess uses. An average UFC fighter sits around 1500. The gap between two fighters sets the forecast: 100 points ahead is about a 64% chance to win, 200 points about 76%, and 400 points about 91%.

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses. Fighter Elo also counts how the fights went (striking and grappling numbers), age and build, and how active a fighter has been. It is worked out fresh before every fight, so it can move between fights too, for example with age or a long layoff.

Classic Elo, shown next to it, is the results-only version. It reads more like normal rankings, and the Rankings page can be switched to it.

Career Numbers

Across every UFC fight with recorded stats.

2.34Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute
29%Striking Accuracy
3.14Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute
54%Striking Defense
0.41Knockdowns per 15 Minutes
2.04Takedowns per 15 Minutes
42%Takedown Accuracy
89%Takedown Defense
0.61Submission Attempts per 15 Minutes
32%Share of Fight Time in Control
10.5 minAverage Fight Length
Ended ByKO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Wins112
Losses102

Fight History

Every UFC fight, newest first. Tap a fight to see what both fighters put up.

Winvs. Lucas BrennanUnanimous DecisionApr 25, 2026UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Francis MarshallLucas Brennan
1468Fighter Elo Going In1502
1499Classic Elo Going In1500
33 of 69Significant Strikes9 of 36
60 of 99Total Strikes20 of 48
2 of 3Takedowns0 of 6
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts1
6:36Control Time0:47
Winvs. Erik SilvaSubmission · R1 2:29Feb 28, 2026UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh

Featherweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Francis MarshallErik Silva
1481Fighter Elo Going In1359
1484Classic Elo Going In1470
3 of 5Significant Strikes5 of 9
10 of 13Total Strikes5 of 9
1 of 2Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
1:42Control Time0:00
Lossvs. Mairon SantosSplit DecisionMar 8, 2025UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev

Featherweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Francis MarshallMairon Santos
1463Fighter Elo Going In1466
1499Classic Elo Going In1516
39 of 143Significant Strikes58 of 129
64 of 179Total Strikes78 of 154
3 of 5Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
2:35Control Time0:02
Winvs. Dennis BuzukjaSplit DecisionAug 24, 2024UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Francis MarshallDennis Buzukja
1384Fighter Elo Going In1429
1483Classic Elo Going In1487
57 of 150Significant Strikes66 of 145
82 of 175Total Strikes76 of 156
1 of 6Takedowns0 of 1
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
5:26Control Time0:08
Lossvs. Isaac DulgarianKO/TKO · R1 4:48Aug 12, 2023UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos

Featherweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Francis MarshallIsaac Dulgarian
1573Fighter Elo Going In1413
1499Classic Elo Going In1500
2 of 7Significant Strikes35 of 53
11 of 16Total Strikes61 of 83
0 of 0Takedowns1 of 1
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time4:18
Lossvs. William GomisSplit DecisionApr 22, 2023UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes

Featherweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Francis MarshallWilliam Gomis
1481Fighter Elo Going In1519
1515Classic Elo Going In1516
15 of 132Significant Strikes27 of 79
35 of 165Total Strikes30 of 84
2 of 5Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
2Submission Attempts0
4:20Control Time0:17
Winvs. Marcelo RojoKO/TKO · R2 1:14Dec 3, 2022UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland

Featherweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Francis MarshallMarcelo Rojo
1490Fighter Elo Going In1198
1500Classic Elo Going In1470
23 of 81Significant Strikes31 of 47
29 of 89Total Strikes48 of 65
1 of 3Takedowns0 of 0
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
2:47Control Time0:00