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Flyweight · Active

Matheus Nicolau

UFC Record
7-4
Age
33
Height
5'6"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox

Fighter Elo

The rating the forecasts are built on. It projects fighters.

Fighter Elo
1410Today
1661Best, Jul 2018
1536Classic Elo
#276 Men: Pound for Pound#30 Flyweight
14001500160017002016201820202022202420261437 going into Bruno Korea, Nov 20151608 going into John Moraga, Jul 20161614 going into Louis Smolka, Dec 20171661 going into Dustin Ortiz, Jul 20181476 going into Manel Kape, Mar 20211512 going into Tim Elliott, Oct 20211517 going into David Dvorak, Mar 20221520 going into Matt Schnell, Dec 20221549 going into Brandon Royval, Apr 20231439 going into Alex Perez, Apr 20241453 going into Asu Almabayev, Oct 20241410 today1410
Fighter Elo going into each UFC fight, and today.
Classic Elo
1536Today
1588Best, Apr 2023
1410Fighter Elo
#211 Men: Pound for Pound#17 Flyweight

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses, so it reads more like normal rankings.

1500155016002016201820202022202420261500 going into Bruno Korea, Nov 20151516 going into John Moraga, Jul 20161533 going into Louis Smolka, Dec 20171548 going into Dustin Ortiz, Jul 20181531 going into Manel Kape, Mar 20211545 going into Tim Elliott, Oct 20211558 going into David Dvorak, Mar 20221574 going into Matt Schnell, Dec 20221588 going into Brandon Royval, Apr 20231569 going into Alex Perez, Apr 20241552 going into Asu Almabayev, Oct 20241536 today1536
Classic Elo going into each UFC fight, and after the last one.

How Fighter Elo Works

Fighter Elo is the model's rating for a fighter, on the same scale chess uses. An average UFC fighter sits around 1500. The gap between two fighters sets the forecast: 100 points ahead is about a 64% chance to win, 200 points about 76%, and 400 points about 91%.

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses. Fighter Elo also counts how the fights went (striking and grappling numbers), age and build, and how active a fighter has been. It is worked out fresh before every fight, so it can move between fights too, for example with age or a long layoff.

Classic Elo, shown next to it, is the results-only version. It reads more like normal rankings, and the Rankings page can be switched to it.

Career Numbers

Across every UFC fight with recorded stats.

3.31Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute
52%Striking Accuracy
2.98Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute
66%Striking Defense
0.97Knockdowns per 15 Minutes
1.22Takedowns per 15 Minutes
44%Takedown Accuracy
90%Takedown Defense
0.85Submission Attempts per 15 Minutes
14%Share of Fight Time in Control
11.2 minAverage Fight Length
Ended ByKO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Wins115
Losses301

Fight History

Every UFC fight, newest first. Tap a fight to see what both fighters put up.

Lossvs. Asu AlmabayevUnanimous DecisionOct 19, 2024UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira

Flyweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Matheus NicolauAsu Almabayev
1453Fighter Elo Going In1627
1552Classic Elo Going In1547
16 of 42Significant Strikes22 of 54
38 of 68Total Strikes55 of 112
0 of 1Takedowns1 of 6
0Knockdowns1
1Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time5:17
Lossvs. Alex PerezKO/TKO · R2 2:16Apr 27, 2024UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez

Flyweight Bout · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Matheus NicolauAlex Perez
1439Fighter Elo Going In1518
1569Classic Elo Going In1532
22 of 55Significant Strikes28 of 71
22 of 55Total Strikes28 of 71
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:02
Lossvs. Brandon RoyvalKO/TKO · R1 2:09Apr 15, 2023UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen

Flyweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Matheus NicolauBrandon Royval
1549Fighter Elo Going In1449
1588Classic Elo Going In1535
2 of 5Significant Strikes13 of 22
2 of 5Total Strikes13 of 22
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:07
Winvs. Matt SchnellKO/TKO · R2 1:44Dec 3, 2022UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland

Flyweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Matheus NicolauMatt Schnell
1520Fighter Elo Going In1425
1574Classic Elo Going In1536
32 of 42Significant Strikes20 of 59
40 of 50Total Strikes29 of 68
1 of 1Takedowns0 of 0
2Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:47Control Time0:00
Winvs. David DvorakUnanimous DecisionMar 26, 2022UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus

Flyweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Matheus NicolauDavid Dvorak
1517Fighter Elo Going In1533
1558Classic Elo Going In1546
36 of 81Significant Strikes39 of 110
46 of 94Total Strikes60 of 134
0 of 2Takedowns0 of 2
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:48Control Time1:25
Winvs. Tim ElliottUnanimous DecisionOct 9, 2021UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez

Flyweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Matheus NicolauTim Elliott
1512Fighter Elo Going In1463
1545Classic Elo Going In1480
64 of 109Significant Strikes70 of 215
128 of 176Total Strikes105 of 255
1 of 1Takedowns1 of 10
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
2:08Control Time2:28
Winvs. Manel KapeSplit DecisionMar 13, 2021UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad

Flyweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Matheus NicolauManel Kape
1476Fighter Elo Going In1573
1531Classic Elo Going In1486
55 of 102Significant Strikes61 of 150
76 of 132Total Strikes73 of 165
2 of 9Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
2:31Control Time0:38
Lossvs. Dustin OrtizKO/TKO · R1 3:49Jul 28, 2018UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2

Flyweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Matheus NicolauDustin Ortiz
1661Fighter Elo Going In1546
1548Classic Elo Going In1535
7 of 16Significant Strikes8 of 43
7 of 16Total Strikes8 of 43
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:04
Winvs. Louis SmolkaUnanimous DecisionDec 30, 2017UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm

Flyweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Matheus NicolauLouis Smolka
1614Fighter Elo Going In1568
1533Classic Elo Going In1509
87 of 172Significant Strikes49 of 159
107 of 196Total Strikes53 of 163
3 of 4Takedowns0 of 1
3Knockdowns0
2Submission Attempts0
4:19Control Time0:01
Winvs. John MoragaSplit DecisionJul 8, 2016The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joanna vs. Team Cláudia Finale

Flyweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Matheus NicolauJohn Moraga
1608Fighter Elo Going In1463
1516Classic Elo Going In1535
41 of 85Significant Strikes31 of 113
53 of 98Total Strikes33 of 115
0 of 1Takedowns0 of 2
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:43Control Time0:00
Winvs. Bruno KoreaSubmission · R3 3:27Nov 7, 2015UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3

Bantamweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Matheus NicolauBruno Korea
1437Fighter Elo Going In1418
1500Classic Elo Going In1500
46 of 77Significant Strikes27 of 79
81 of 120Total Strikes49 of 103
3 of 4Takedowns0 of 0
2Knockdowns1
3Submission Attempts0
6:37Control Time0:00