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Welterweight · Active

Gunnar Nelson

UFC Record
10-6
Age
38
Height
5'11"
Reach
72"
Stance
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Fighter Elo

The rating the forecasts are built on. It projects fighters.

Fighter Elo
1484Today
1702Best, Feb 2013
1560Classic Elo
#177 Men: Pound for Pound#33 Welterweight
1400150016001700180020132015201720192021202320251603 going into DaMarques Johnson, Sep 20121702 going into Jorge Santiago, Feb 20131654 going into Omari Akhmedov, Mar 20141594 going into Zak Cummings, Jul 20141662 going into Rick Story, Oct 20141585 going into Brandon Thatch, Jul 20151606 going into Demian Maia, Dec 20151573 going into Albert Tumenov, May 20161602 going into Alan Jouban, Mar 20171613 going into Santiago Ponzinibbio, Jul 20171537 going into Alex Oliveira, Dec 20181577 going into Leon Edwards, Mar 20191574 going into Gilbert Burns, Sep 20191527 going into Takashi Sato, Mar 20221596 going into Bryan Barberena, Mar 20231527 going into Kevin Holland, Mar 20251484 today1484
Fighter Elo going into each UFC fight, and today.
Classic Elo
1560Today
1579Best, Mar 2019
1484Fighter Elo
#140 Men: Pound for Pound#29 Welterweight

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses, so it reads more like normal rankings.

15001550160020132015201720192021202320251500 going into DaMarques Johnson, Sep 20121516 going into Jorge Santiago, Feb 20131529 going into Omari Akhmedov, Mar 20141544 going into Zak Cummings, Jul 20141560 going into Rick Story, Oct 20141544 going into Brandon Thatch, Jul 20151559 going into Demian Maia, Dec 20151545 going into Albert Tumenov, May 20161562 going into Alan Jouban, Mar 20171578 going into Santiago Ponzinibbio, Jul 20171562 going into Alex Oliveira, Dec 20181579 going into Leon Edwards, Mar 20191564 going into Gilbert Burns, Sep 20191549 going into Takashi Sato, Mar 20221563 going into Bryan Barberena, Mar 20231578 going into Kevin Holland, Mar 20251560 today1560
Classic Elo going into each UFC fight, and after the last one.

How Fighter Elo Works

Fighter Elo is the model's rating for a fighter, on the same scale chess uses. An average UFC fighter sits around 1500. The gap between two fighters sets the forecast: 100 points ahead is about a 64% chance to win, 200 points about 76%, and 400 points about 91%.

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses. Fighter Elo also counts how the fights went (striking and grappling numbers), age and build, and how active a fighter has been. It is worked out fresh before every fight, so it can move between fights too, for example with age or a long layoff.

Classic Elo, shown next to it, is the results-only version. It reads more like normal rankings, and the Rankings page can be switched to it.

Career Numbers

Across every UFC fight with recorded stats.

1.77Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute
61%Striking Accuracy
3.06Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute
49%Striking Defense
0.09Knockdowns per 15 Minutes
2.00Takedowns per 15 Minutes
52%Takedown Accuracy
68%Takedown Defense
1.00Submission Attempts per 15 Minutes
35%Share of Fight Time in Control
10.3 minAverage Fight Length
Ended ByKO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Wins082
Losses105

Fight History

Every UFC fight, newest first. Tap a fight to see what both fighters put up.

Lossvs. Kevin HollandUnanimous DecisionMar 22, 2025UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Gunnar NelsonKevin Holland
1527Fighter Elo Going In1539
1578Classic Elo Going In1536
15 of 24Significant Strikes55 of 89
30 of 44Total Strikes138 of 178
3 of 10Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns1
1Submission Attempts0
9:29Control Time1:04
Winvs. Bryan BarberenaSubmission · R1 4:51Mar 18, 2023UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Gunnar NelsonBryan Barberena
1596Fighter Elo Going In1435
1563Classic Elo Going In1541
10 of 11Significant Strikes7 of 12
20 of 21Total Strikes18 of 23
1 of 2Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
3:13Control Time0:00
Winvs. Takashi SatoUnanimous DecisionMar 19, 2022UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Gunnar NelsonTakashi Sato
1527Fighter Elo Going In1430
1549Classic Elo Going In1503
44 of 55Significant Strikes9 of 23
140 of 166Total Strikes16 of 34
3 of 3Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
8:09Control Time0:00
Lossvs. Gilbert BurnsUnanimous DecisionSep 28, 2019UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Gunnar NelsonGilbert Burns
1574Fighter Elo Going In1590
1564Classic Elo Going In1585
20 of 36Significant Strikes30 of 76
26 of 45Total Strikes46 of 99
0 of 2Takedowns1 of 3
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts1
4:49Control Time1:55
Lossvs. Leon EdwardsSplit DecisionMar 16, 2019UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Gunnar NelsonLeon Edwards
1577Fighter Elo Going In1673
1579Classic Elo Going In1598
9 of 18Significant Strikes31 of 49
27 of 38Total Strikes47 of 69
3 of 4Takedowns2 of 3
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
4:22Control Time3:29
Winvs. Alex OliveiraSubmission · R2 4:17Dec 8, 2018UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Gunnar NelsonAlex Oliveira
1537Fighter Elo Going In1668
1562Classic Elo Going In1595
11 of 11Significant Strikes36 of 49
20 of 20Total Strikes52 of 69
2 of 5Takedowns0 of 2
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
4:43Control Time3:06
Lossvs. Santiago PonzinibbioKO/TKO · R1 1:22Jul 16, 2017UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Gunnar NelsonSantiago Ponzinibbio
1613Fighter Elo Going In1592
1578Classic Elo Going In1566
5 of 7Significant Strikes7 of 12
5 of 7Total Strikes7 of 12
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:03
Winvs. Alan JoubanSubmission · R2 0:46Mar 18, 2017UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. Anderson

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Gunnar NelsonAlan Jouban
1602Fighter Elo Going In1548
1562Classic Elo Going In1561
8 of 18Significant Strikes17 of 33
17 of 28Total Strikes17 of 33
1 of 2Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
3:03Control Time0:00
Winvs. Albert TumenovSubmission · R2 3:15May 8, 2016UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Gunnar NelsonAlbert Tumenov
1573Fighter Elo Going In1653
1545Classic Elo Going In1563
29 of 44Significant Strikes23 of 41
41 of 56Total Strikes24 of 43
2 of 2Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
4:18Control Time0:00
Lossvs. Demian MaiaUnanimous DecisionDec 12, 2015UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Gunnar NelsonDemian Maia
1606Fighter Elo Going In1668
1559Classic Elo Going In1621
2 of 4Significant Strikes47 of 58
7 of 10Total Strikes193 of 229
1 of 1Takedowns2 of 8
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts1
2:14Control Time10:56
Winvs. Brandon ThatchSubmission · R1 2:54Jul 11, 2015UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Gunnar NelsonBrandon Thatch
1585Fighter Elo Going In1568
1544Classic Elo Going In1519
6 of 8Significant Strikes8 of 14
20 of 24Total Strikes8 of 14
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
1Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
1:26Control Time0:00
Lossvs. Rick StorySplit DecisionOct 4, 2014UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Gunnar NelsonRick Story
1662Fighter Elo Going In1628
1560Classic Elo Going In1557
53 of 107Significant Strikes168 of 315
54 of 108Total Strikes211 of 360
1 of 4Takedowns1 of 1
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
0:22Control Time0:36
Winvs. Zak CummingsSubmission · R2 4:48Jul 19, 2014UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Gunnar NelsonZak Cummings
1594Fighter Elo Going In1633
1544Classic Elo Going In1532
13 of 24Significant Strikes18 of 75
23 of 34Total Strikes21 of 79
1 of 1Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
0:43Control Time0:54
Winvs. Omari AkhmedovSubmission · R1 4:36Mar 8, 2014UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs Manuwa

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Gunnar NelsonOmari Akhmedov
1654Fighter Elo Going In1570
1529Classic Elo Going In1517
16 of 20Significant Strikes6 of 16
25 of 32Total Strikes8 of 18
1 of 1Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
3:06Control Time0:02
Winvs. Jorge SantiagoUnanimous DecisionFeb 16, 2013UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald

Welterweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Gunnar NelsonJorge Santiago
1702Fighter Elo Going In1333
1516Classic Elo Going In1459
42 of 80Significant Strikes43 of 123
47 of 86Total Strikes52 of 134
2 of 4Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
5:38Control Time0:12
Winvs. DaMarques JohnsonSubmission · R1 3:34Sep 29, 2012UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic

Catch Weight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Gunnar NelsonDaMarques Johnson
1603Fighter Elo Going In1400
1500Classic Elo Going In1489
9 of 10Significant Strikes1 of 4
16 of 17Total Strikes1 of 4
1 of 1Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
2Submission Attempts0
2:51Control Time0:00