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Lightweight · Active

Rafa Garcia

UFC Record
7-5
Age
32
Height
5'7"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox

Fighter Elo

The rating the forecasts are built on. It projects fighters.

Fighter Elo
1568Today
1629Best, Apr 2026
1544Classic Elo
#95 Men: Pound for Pound#14 Lightweight
1400150016001700202220232024202520261409 going into Nasrat Haqparast, Mar 20211456 going into Chris Gruetzemacher, Jul 20211537 going into Natan Levy, Nov 20211498 going into Jesse Ronson, Apr 20221528 going into Drakkar Klose, Jul 20221541 going into Maheshate, Dec 20221590 going into Clay Guida, Apr 20231587 going into Grant Dawson, Oct 20241539 going into Vinc Pichel, Mar 20251559 going into Jared Gordon, Sep 20251629 going into Alexander Hernandez, Apr 20261615 going into Rongzhu, Sep 20261568 today1568
Fighter Elo going into each UFC fight, and today.
Classic Elo
1544Today
1562Best, Sep 2026
1568Fighter Elo
#187 Men: Pound for Pound#33 Lightweight

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses, so it reads more like normal rankings.

1450150015501600202220232024202520261500 going into Nasrat Haqparast, Mar 20211485 going into Chris Gruetzemacher, Jul 20211470 going into Natan Levy, Nov 20211487 going into Jesse Ronson, Apr 20221501 going into Drakkar Klose, Jul 20221488 going into Maheshate, Dec 20221505 going into Clay Guida, Apr 20231523 going into Grant Dawson, Oct 20241511 going into Vinc Pichel, Mar 20251528 going into Jared Gordon, Sep 20251546 going into Alexander Hernandez, Apr 20261562 going into Rongzhu, Sep 20261544 today1544
Classic Elo going into each UFC fight, and after the last one.

How Fighter Elo Works

Fighter Elo is the model's rating for a fighter, on the same scale chess uses. An average UFC fighter sits around 1500. The gap between two fighters sets the forecast: 100 points ahead is about a 64% chance to win, 200 points about 76%, and 400 points about 91%.

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses. Fighter Elo also counts how the fights went (striking and grappling numbers), age and build, and how active a fighter has been. It is worked out fresh before every fight, so it can move between fights too, for example with age or a long layoff.

Classic Elo, shown next to it, is the results-only version. It reads more like normal rankings, and the Rankings page can be switched to it.

Career Numbers

Across every UFC fight with recorded stats.

4.33Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute
44%Striking Accuracy
4.68Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute
61%Striking Defense
0.09Knockdowns per 15 Minutes
3.02Takedowns per 15 Minutes
42%Takedown Accuracy
77%Takedown Defense
0.37Submission Attempts per 15 Minutes
21%Share of Fight Time in Control
13.7 minAverage Fight Length
Ended ByKO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Wins115
Losses104

Fight History

Every UFC fight, newest first. Tap a fight to see what both fighters put up.

Lossvs. RongzhuUnanimous DecisionSep 12, 2026Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafa GarciaRongzhu
1615Fighter Elo Going In1486
1562Classic Elo Going In1501
73 of 189Significant Strikes109 of 247
77 of 193Total Strikes110 of 248
1 of 9Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
1:15Control Time0:00
Winvs. Alexander HernandezUnanimous DecisionApr 25, 2026UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafa GarciaAlexander Hernandez
1629Fighter Elo Going In1502
1546Classic Elo Going In1563
59 of 169Significant Strikes50 of 145
79 of 194Total Strikes54 of 149
4 of 7Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
1:50Control Time0:00
Winvs. Jared GordonKO/TKO · R3 2:27Sep 13, 2025Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafa GarciaJared Gordon
1559Fighter Elo Going In1450
1528Classic Elo Going In1554
91 of 162Significant Strikes65 of 186
107 of 179Total Strikes80 of 201
2 of 3Takedowns1 of 3
1Knockdowns0
2Submission Attempts0
2:01Control Time0:09
Winvs. Vinc PichelUnanimous DecisionMar 29, 2025UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafa GarciaVinc Pichel
1539Fighter Elo Going In1354
1511Classic Elo Going In1543
64 of 120Significant Strikes79 of 182
76 of 136Total Strikes88 of 191
2 of 6Takedowns0 of 3
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
2:15Control Time0:01
Lossvs. Grant DawsonKO/TKO · R2 1:42Oct 12, 2024UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafa GarciaGrant Dawson
1587Fighter Elo Going In1681
1523Classic Elo Going In1614
5 of 12Significant Strikes44 of 90
29 of 38Total Strikes80 of 144
0 of 0Takedowns2 of 4
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time5:09
Winvs. Clay GuidaUnanimous DecisionApr 15, 2023UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafa GarciaClay Guida
1590Fighter Elo Going In1337
1505Classic Elo Going In1538
141 of 287Significant Strikes63 of 252
143 of 289Total Strikes63 of 252
0 of 1Takedowns0 of 3
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:20Control Time0:00
Winvs. MaheshateUnanimous DecisionDec 17, 2022UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafa GarciaMaheshate
1541Fighter Elo Going In1559
1488Classic Elo Going In1516
49 of 98Significant Strikes25 of 141
79 of 138Total Strikes30 of 148
6 of 11Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
6:10Control Time0:00
Lossvs. Drakkar KloseUnanimous DecisionJul 30, 2022UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafa GarciaDrakkar Klose
1528Fighter Elo Going In1531
1501Classic Elo Going In1562
34 of 57Significant Strikes61 of 115
83 of 111Total Strikes111 of 175
3 of 11Takedowns2 of 10
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
2:54Control Time2:05
Winvs. Jesse RonsonSubmission · R2 4:50Apr 16, 2022UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafa GarciaJesse Ronson
1498Fighter Elo Going In1304
1487Classic Elo Going In1453
35 of 80Significant Strikes25 of 61
73 of 126Total Strikes28 of 64
3 of 4Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
4:37Control Time0:02
Winvs. Natan LevyUnanimous DecisionNov 20, 2021UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafa GarciaNatan Levy
1537Fighter Elo Going In1469
1470Classic Elo Going In1500
35 of 91Significant Strikes47 of 127
55 of 117Total Strikes56 of 136
7 of 12Takedowns3 of 7
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
5:37Control Time0:48
Lossvs. Chris GruetzemacherUnanimous DecisionJul 31, 2021UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafa GarciaChris Gruetzemacher
1456Fighter Elo Going In1325
1485Classic Elo Going In1488
72 of 146Significant Strikes100 of 190
90 of 166Total Strikes176 of 268
5 of 12Takedowns0 of 1
0Knockdowns0
1Submission Attempts0
6:26Control Time0:03
Lossvs. Nasrat HaqparastUnanimous DecisionMar 13, 2021UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Rafa GarciaNasrat Haqparast
1409Fighter Elo Going In1634
1500Classic Elo Going In1531
52 of 217Significant Strikes99 of 217
54 of 219Total Strikes99 of 218
0 of 3Takedowns0 of 2
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:21Control Time0:00