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Lightweight · Active

Justin Gaethje

UFC Record
11-5
Age
37
Height
5'11"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox

Fighter Elo

The rating the forecasts are built on. It projects fighters.

Fighter Elo
1550Today
1620Best, Oct 2020
1641Classic Elo
#108 Men: Pound for Pound#15 Lightweight
14501500155016001650201820202022202420261499 going into Michael Johnson, Jul 20171593 going into Eddie Alvarez, Dec 20171547 going into Dustin Poirier, Apr 20181488 going into James Vick, Aug 20181523 going into Edson Barboza, Mar 20191526 going into Donald Cerrone, Sep 20191549 going into Tony Ferguson, May 20201620 going into Khabib Nurmagomedov, Oct 20201571 going into Michael Chandler, Nov 20211615 going into Charles Oliveira, May 20221581 going into Rafael Fiziev, Mar 20231546 going into Dustin Poirier, Jul 20231571 going into Max Holloway, Apr 20241515 going into Rafael Fiziev, Mar 20251508 going into Paddy Pimblett, Jan 20261549 going into Ilia Topuria, Jun 20261550 today1550
Fighter Elo going into each UFC fight, and today.
Classic Elo
1641Today
1550Fighter Elo
#21 Men: Pound for Pound#4 Lightweight

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses, so it reads more like normal rankings.

14501500155016001650201820202022202420261500 going into Michael Johnson, Jul 20171518 going into Eddie Alvarez, Dec 20171503 going into Dustin Poirier, Apr 20181493 going into James Vick, Aug 20181514 going into Edson Barboza, Mar 20191534 going into Donald Cerrone, Sep 20191555 going into Tony Ferguson, May 20201578 going into Khabib Nurmagomedov, Oct 20201566 going into Michael Chandler, Nov 20211580 going into Charles Oliveira, May 20221568 going into Rafael Fiziev, Mar 20231585 going into Dustin Poirier, Jul 20231606 going into Max Holloway, Apr 20241593 going into Rafael Fiziev, Mar 20251607 going into Paddy Pimblett, Jan 20261623 going into Ilia Topuria, Jun 20261641 today1641
Classic Elo going into each UFC fight, and after the last one.

How Fighter Elo Works

Fighter Elo is the model's rating for a fighter, on the same scale chess uses. An average UFC fighter sits around 1500. The gap between two fighters sets the forecast: 100 points ahead is about a 64% chance to win, 200 points about 76%, and 400 points about 91%.

Classic Elo only moves on wins and losses. Fighter Elo also counts how the fights went (striking and grappling numbers), age and build, and how active a fighter has been. It is worked out fresh before every fight, so it can move between fights too, for example with age or a long layoff.

Classic Elo, shown next to it, is the results-only version. It reads more like normal rankings, and the Rankings page can be switched to it.

Career Numbers

Across every UFC fight with recorded stats.

6.29Sig. Strikes Landed per Minute
58%Striking Accuracy
6.83Sig. Strikes Absorbed per Minute
51%Striking Defense
0.67Knockdowns per 15 Minutes
0.30Takedowns per 15 Minutes
27%Takedown Accuracy
73%Takedown Defense
0.00Submission Attempts per 15 Minutes
7%Share of Fight Time in Control
12.6 minAverage Fight Length
Ended ByKO/TKOSubmissionDecision
Wins704
Losses320

Fight History

Every UFC fight, newest first. Tap a fight to see what both fighters put up.

Winvs. Ilia TopuriaKO/TKO · R4 5:00Jun 14, 2026UFC Freedom 250

UFC Lightweight Title Bout · Title Fight · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Justin GaethjeIlia Topuria
1549Fighter Elo Going In1777
1623Classic Elo Going In1655
91 of 192Significant Strikes97 of 162
119 of 228Total Strikes111 of 177
0 of 5Takedowns1 of 3
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
1:32Control Time2:32
Winvs. Paddy PimblettUnanimous DecisionJan 24, 2026UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett

UFC Interim Lightweight Title Bout · Title Fight · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Justin GaethjePaddy Pimblett
1508Fighter Elo Going In1646
1607Classic Elo Going In1606
144 of 254Significant Strikes156 of 311
200 of 313Total Strikes170 of 326
3 of 3Takedowns0 of 5
2Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
5:55Control Time0:48
Winvs. Rafael FizievUnanimous DecisionMar 8, 2025UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Justin GaethjeRafael Fiziev
1515Fighter Elo Going In1464
1593Classic Elo Going In1554
72 of 134Significant Strikes68 of 119
98 of 163Total Strikes81 of 134
0 of 3Takedowns2 of 2
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
1:32Control Time0:40
Lossvs. Max HollowayKO/TKO · R5 4:59Apr 13, 2024UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Justin GaethjeMax Holloway
1571Fighter Elo Going In1724
1606Classic Elo Going In1684
103 of 199Significant Strikes181 of 309
103 of 199Total Strikes181 of 309
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:00
Winvs. Dustin PoirierKO/TKO · R2 1:00Jul 29, 2023UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Justin GaethjeDustin Poirier
1546Fighter Elo Going In1533
1585Classic Elo Going In1687
41 of 66Significant Strikes27 of 52
41 of 66Total Strikes27 of 52
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:01Control Time0:00
Winvs. Rafael FizievMajority DecisionMar 18, 2023UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Justin GaethjeRafael Fiziev
1581Fighter Elo Going In1588
1568Classic Elo Going In1587
103 of 171Significant Strikes97 of 169
106 of 174Total Strikes97 of 169
1 of 3Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:05Control Time0:00
Lossvs. Charles OliveiraSubmission · R1 3:22May 7, 2022UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Justin GaethjeCharles Oliveira
1615Fighter Elo Going In1681
1580Classic Elo Going In1685
21 of 33Significant Strikes30 of 47
21 of 33Total Strikes33 of 52
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 1
1Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts2
0:13Control Time0:39
Winvs. Michael ChandlerUnanimous DecisionNov 6, 2021UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Justin GaethjeMichael Chandler
1571Fighter Elo Going In1540
1566Classic Elo Going In1510
116 of 183Significant Strikes103 of 245
133 of 205Total Strikes104 of 246
0 of 0Takedowns1 of 6
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
1:37Control Time0:03
Lossvs. Khabib NurmagomedovSubmission · R2 1:34Oct 24, 2020UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje

UFC Lightweight Title Bout · Title Fight · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Justin GaethjeKhabib Nurmagomedov
1620Fighter Elo Going In1849
1578Classic Elo Going In1681
29 of 45Significant Strikes26 of 80
29 of 46Total Strikes26 of 80
0 of 0Takedowns2 of 3
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts1
0:14Control Time0:55
Winvs. Tony FergusonKO/TKO · R5 3:39May 9, 2020UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje

UFC Interim Lightweight Title Bout · Title Fight · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Justin GaethjeTony Ferguson
1549Fighter Elo Going In1661
1555Classic Elo Going In1698
143 of 197Significant Strikes136 of 296
143 of 197Total Strikes136 of 296
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:00Control Time0:00
Winvs. Donald CerroneKO/TKO · R1 4:18Sep 14, 2019UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Justin GaethjeDonald Cerrone
1526Fighter Elo Going In1567
1534Classic Elo Going In1650
40 of 61Significant Strikes17 of 52
40 of 61Total Strikes17 of 52
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:04Control Time0:00
Winvs. Edson BarbozaKO/TKO · R1 2:30Mar 30, 2019UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Justin GaethjeEdson Barboza
1523Fighter Elo Going In1486
1514Classic Elo Going In1604
20 of 35Significant Strikes13 of 32
22 of 37Total Strikes13 of 32
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:44Control Time0:00
Winvs. James VickKO/TKO · R1 1:27Aug 25, 2018UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Justin GaethjeJames Vick
1488Fighter Elo Going In1652
1493Classic Elo Going In1621
7 of 15Significant Strikes10 of 20
7 of 15Total Strikes11 of 21
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 0
1Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:04Control Time0:00
Lossvs. Dustin PoirierKO/TKO · R4 0:33Apr 14, 2018UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Justin GaethjeDustin Poirier
1547Fighter Elo Going In1614
1503Classic Elo Going In1631
115 of 212Significant Strikes174 of 351
116 of 213Total Strikes179 of 357
0 of 0Takedowns0 of 5
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
1:04Control Time0:06
Lossvs. Eddie AlvarezKO/TKO · R3 3:59Dec 2, 2017UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 3 rounds

Justin GaethjeEddie Alvarez
1593Fighter Elo Going In1495
1518Classic Elo Going In1533
122 of 237Significant Strikes155 of 356
124 of 240Total Strikes162 of 366
0 of 1Takedowns1 of 2
0Knockdowns1
0Submission Attempts0
0:06Control Time0:20
Winvs. Michael JohnsonKO/TKO · R2 4:48Jul 7, 2017The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale

Lightweight Bout · Scheduled for 5 rounds

Justin GaethjeMichael Johnson
1499Fighter Elo Going In1463
1500Classic Elo Going In1548
104 of 174Significant Strikes91 of 200
104 of 174Total Strikes91 of 200
0 of 0Takedowns1 of 3
0Knockdowns0
0Submission Attempts0
0:06Control Time0:34